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Hurricane FRANKLIN


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Hurricane Franklin Discussion Number  14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL072017
1000 PM CDT Wed Aug 09 2017

Satellite images show some increase in organization of the cloud
pattern with very deep convection near the center and outflow in
all quadrants, suggesting that the cyclone is strengthening. An eye
has not been depicted in conventional imagery, but it was noted in
earlier microwave data. Intensification was confirmed by an Air
Force plane which reported an earlier peak of 89 kt at flight level
and a recent peak of 80 kt measured by the SFMR. The flight level
winds were lower in the most recent leg. The minimum pressure was
near 981 mb near 0000 UTC, but then rose to 985 mb by 0200 UTC.
Based on reports from the plane, the initial intensity has been set
at 75 kt. There is an opportunity for Franklin to pick up a little
more strength or fluctuate in intensity before landfall tonight or
early Thursday. Once the hurricane moves inland over the high
terrain, rapid weakening should begin. Regardless of weakening, the
cyclone will likely bring torrential rains with flash flooding and
mud slides along its path.

Franklin is moving toward the west or 270 degrees at 11 kt. The
hurricane is trapped within the easterly flow around a strong
high pressure system over Mexico and the southwestern United
States. This pattern will force Franklin to move on the same general
westward track toward the coast of Mexico and then inland until
dissipation.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  10/0300Z 20.2N  96.1W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  10/1200Z 20.0N  98.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 24H  11/0000Z 19.5N 102.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 36H  11/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Avila

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