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Potential Tropical Cyclone THREE
ZCZC MIATCPAT3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Three Intermediate Advisory Number 3A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032017 700 AM CDT Tue Jun 20 2017 ...DISTURBANCE GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO... ...HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF COAST... SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.4N 90.3W ABOUT 265 MI...430 KM SSW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER ABOUT 300 MI...485 KM S OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Cameron to the Mouth of the Pearl River A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * West of Cameron to High Island A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 to 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere along the U.S. Gulf Coast from the central Texas coast to the western Florida Panhandle should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 25.4 North, longitude 90.3 West. The system is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion should continue through Wednesday, with a turn toward the north expected Wednesday night or Thursday. On the forecast track, the disturbance is expected to be near the Louisiana coast late Wednesday or Wednesday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible before the system reaches the coast. Satellite imagery shows that the center of the disturbance is gradually become better defined, and it is likely that the system will become a tropical or subtropical cyclone later today. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km) mainly to the east of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). NOAA buoy 42001 just reported a pressure of 1000.6 mb (29.54 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the warning area by this afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area on Wednesday. RAINFALL: The disturbance is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 10 inches over southeastern Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southern Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle through Thursday morning. Rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches can be expected farther west across southwest Louisiana into southeast Texas through Thursday morning. STORM SURGE: Inundations of 1 to 3 feet are possible along the coast in the Tropical Storm Warning area. TORNADOES: A tornado or two is possible this afternoon and tonight from south-central Louisiana to the western Florida Panhandle. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brennan NNNN