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TROPICAL STORM PAINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172016
300 PM MDT SUN SEP 18 2016

Paine has strengthened significantly today, with increasingly better
defined convective bands wrapping at least 3/4 of the way around
the circulation.  The intensity is set, perhaps conservatively, to
50 kt which is the average of Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB.
Vertical shear has relaxed, and the tropical cyclone has about 24
hours over warm water.  The official intensity forecast now calls
for Paine to become a hurricane within that time frame, in close
agreement with the SHIPS guidance.  By tomorrow night, the cyclone
will be encountering SSTs below 24 deg C, so a weakening trend
should be underway by that time.  Paine will continue to move over
progressively cooler waters thereafter, and should decay into a
remnant low in about 72 hours.

The initial motion estimate, 310/12 kt, is not much different than
in the earlier advisory.  The track forecast philosophy has not
changed.  Paine should move along the southwestern periphery of a
mid-tropospheric high pressure system centered near Texas for the
next couple of days and remain offshore of the Baja California
peninsula.  In 72 hours, the remnant low is forecast to approach
the northern portion of the peninsula, but it should dissipate
before reaching land.

Deep-layer moisture associated with Paine or its remnants is
expected to spread over portions of the southwestern United States
in a couple of days.  This could enhance the rainfall potential in
these areas.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  18/2100Z 18.5N 112.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  19/0600Z 19.8N 114.4W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  19/1800Z 21.9N 116.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  20/0600Z 23.9N 117.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  20/1800Z 25.8N 117.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  21/1800Z 28.9N 117.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  22/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

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