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TROPICAL STORM NEWTON DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152016
300 AM MDT MON SEP 05 2016

Newton appears to be gradually strengthening.  The tropical storm is
producing a large area of deep convection, which is a little better
organized than it was several hours ago.  The Dvorak classifications
from TAFB and SAB were 2.5/35 kt, and automated values from CIMSS at
the University of Wisconsin are close to 3.0/45 kt.  Based on these
data, the initial wind speed estimate is increased to 40 kt.

The low-level center has been challenging to locate overnight, but
it appears that Newton is moving north-northwestward at about 9 kt.
The tropical storm is forecast to move northwestward at a faster
pace during the next day or two while it tracks along the
southwestern periphery of a mid-level ridge centered over the
south-central United States.  A turn to the north is expected beyond
a couple of days when Newton rounds the ridge and moves into a
pronounced weakness.  The track guidance has shifted a little to the
west this cycle, and the NHC forecast has been nudged in that
direction.  The new NHC forecast brings the center of Newton very
close to the extreme southern Baja California peninsula in 24 to 36
hours.

Low shear, a moist environment, and very warm water should allow
Newton to steadily strengthen until it reaches the Baja California
peninsula. In fact, rapid intensification is a possibility as the
SHIPS Rapid Intensification Index shows a 40 percent chance of a
30-kt increase in the winds during the next 24 hours.  Based on the
expected conducive environment, the NHC intensity forecast remains
near the high end of the guidance during the next day or two. After
Newton passes the Baja peninsula, weakening should occur due to land
interaction and an increase in vertical wind shear.

Based on the latest forecast, the Government of Mexico has extended
the watches and warnings northward along the Baja California
coastlines and the west coast of mainland Mexico.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  05/0900Z 17.9N 106.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  05/1800Z 19.2N 107.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  06/0600Z 21.3N 109.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  06/1800Z 23.3N 110.3W   60 KT  70 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
 48H  07/0600Z 25.9N 111.2W   55 KT  65 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
 72H  08/0600Z 31.2N 111.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 96H  09/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

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