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TROPICAL STORM JAVIER ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112016
900 PM MDT SUN AUG 07 2016

...JAVIER GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED...
...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.6N 107.7W
ABOUT 210 MI...340 KM SE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Warning for the
southern portion of Baja California peninsula from Cabo San Lucas to
Todo Santos, Mexico.  Elsewhere on the southern portion of Baja
California peninsula, a Hurricane Watch and a Tropical Storm Warning
has been issued from north of Todo Santos to Cabo San Lazaro, and
from east of Cabo San Lucas to Los Barriles. A Tropical Storm
Warning has been issued from north of Los Barriles to San Evaristo.
A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued from north of San Evaristo to
Loreto.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Cabo San Lucas to Todo Santos

A Hurricane Watch and a Tropical Storm Warning are in effect for...
* Todo Santos to Cabo San Lazaro
* Cabo San Lucas to Los Barriles

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Los Barriles to San Evaristo

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* San Evaristo to Loreto

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous.  Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within the next 36 hours
for the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Javier was
located near latitude 20.6 North, longitude 107.7 West. Javier is
moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this motion
with a decrease in forward speed is expected to continue through
Monday.  On the forecast track, the center of Javier should approach
the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula by late
Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is expected during the next day or so, and Javier is
forecast to become a hurricane by late Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Javier is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
4 to 8 inches over western or coastal parts of the Mexican states of
Colima, Jalisco, Michoacan, Nayarit and the southern part of Baja
California Sur with possible isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches
through Tuesday morning.

WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected over the southern tip of
the Baja California peninsula within the warning area by Monday
night and early Tuesday.  Tropical storm conditions are expected
over the remainder of the southern portion of the Baja California
peninsula within the warning area by Monday night. Tropical storm
conditions are possible within the watch area over the southern
portion of the Baja California peninsula on Tuesday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1200 AM MDT.
Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

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