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TROPICAL STORM IVETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP102016
800 AM PDT SUN AUG 07 2016

Ivette generated a new burst of deep convection around the time of
the last advisory, and that burst has been persisting. However,
satellite data show that the center remains partially exposed to
the southwest of this cloud mass due to strong southwesterly
vertical wind shear.  An overnight ASCAT pass showed at least 35-kt
winds, and the initial intensity estimate is held at 40 kt since the
cloud pattern is as organized or perhaps slightly better than 6
hours ago.

The future for Ivette looks bleak.  The cyclone is forecast to
encounter even stronger southwesterly shear in the next few days,
along with increasingly drier air and marginal sea surface
temperatures.  These factors suggest that Ivette's time as a
tropical cyclone would likely come to a close sooner rather than
later, and the official forecast calls for remnant low status in 36
hours in agreement with the global models.  The new intensity
forecast is identical to the previous one and is in agreement with
the bulk of the intensity guidance, with dissipation shown in 2
days.

Ivette has been maintaining a west-northwestward motion of 290/10.
This general motion should continue today as the cyclone is steered
by the flow on the south side of a subtropical ridge.  A westward
and west-southwestward change in the cyclone's heading is likely
once Ivette becomes a shallower cyclone in about 24 hours.  The new
forecast track is hardly changed from the previous one, and is near
the multi-model conensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  07/1500Z 17.2N 138.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  08/0000Z 17.7N 139.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  08/1200Z 18.3N 141.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  09/0000Z 18.5N 143.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  09/1200Z 18.3N 145.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  10/1200Z...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain

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