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TROPICAL STORM IVETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP102016
200 PM PDT SAT AUG 06 2016

Visible satellite imagery shows that Ivette's center is located
near the western edge of the deep convection due to 15 kt of
west-southwesterly shear.  There has been little change in the
structure of the cyclone, and Dvorak estimates remain 3.0 from TAFB
and SAB.  Therefore, the initial intensity remains 45 kt.  Vertical
shear is expected to increase to over 20 kt in about 24 hours,
lasting through the end of the forecast period.  Weakening is
forecast, and the global models suggest that Ivette could lose
organized deep convection in 48-72 hours and open up into a trough
by 96 hours.  The NHC forecast is therefore updated to show Ivette
as a remnant low on day 3 and dissipated on day 4.

Ivette is moving west-northwestward, or 285/10 kt.  This heading
should continue for the next 36 hours while Ivette moves between a
mid-level low to its west and the subtropical ridge to its north.
After that time, the weakening cyclone is expected to turn
westward, steered by lower-level trade winds.  The NHC track
forecast has been nudged northward from the previous forecast
between 24-72 hours and is very close to the multi-model consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  06/2100Z 16.3N 135.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  07/0600Z 16.8N 136.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  07/1800Z 17.6N 138.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  08/0600Z 18.3N 140.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  08/1800Z 18.6N 141.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  09/1800Z 18.4N 145.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  10/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg

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