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TROPICAL STORM IVETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP102016
200 PM PDT THU AUG 04 2016

Vertical shear over Ivette is gradually decreasing, and the
low-level center is now embedded beneath a persistent CDO feature.
A recent ASCAT pass indicated that maximum winds are now near 45
kt, which is supported by an average of subjective and objective
satellite intensity estimates.  Ivette may finally be starting the
gradual intensification trend that has been forecast, and the
intensity guidance indicates that strengthening should continue for
the next 48 hours while sea surface temperatures are warm and
vertical shear is low.  Most of the models continue to keep Ivette
below hurricane strength, but the NHC intensity forecast still
makes the cyclone a hurricane in 48 hours, which is supported by
the Florida State Superensemble and the SHIPS model.  After 48
hours, increasing shear and lower oceanic heat content should cause
fast weakening through day 5.

The ASCAT pass was useful in helping to reposition Ivette's center,
and the initial motion estimate is now 270/12 kt.  The subtropical
ridge to the north of the cyclone is forecast to steer Ivette
westward for the next 24 hours.  Thereafter, a break in the ridge
to the northeast of Hawaii should cause the cyclone to turn
west-northwestward and decelerate.  The updated NHC track forecast
is adjusted a little southward during the first 3 days to account
for the refinement of the initial position.  Otherwise, it lies
very close to the multi-model consensus in the middle of a tightly
packed guidance envelope.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  04/2100Z 14.7N 127.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  05/0600Z 14.8N 129.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  05/1800Z 15.0N 131.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  06/0600Z 15.5N 133.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  06/1800Z 16.1N 134.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  07/1800Z 17.4N 137.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  08/1800Z 18.5N 141.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  09/1800Z 19.0N 144.0W   35 KT  40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

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