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HURRICANE GEORGETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082016
200 PM PDT MON JUL 25 2016
The eye is no longer seen in infrared imagery, but Georgette still
has a small CDO with tops colder than -70C. The initial intensity
is set to 95 kt based on a blend of the decreasing Dvorak Final-T
and CI numbers from both TAFB and SAB. Rapid weakening is
expected, with Georgette now moving over SSTs of around 25C and
heading for even cooler waters. The NHC forecast follows the
downward trend in the guidance this cycle and is close to the LGEM.
Georgette should become post-tropical by 3 days and dissipate by
day 4, although I wouldn't be surprised if both of these occurred
sooner.
The initial motion estimate remains 315/08, as Georgette continues
to be steered northwestward by an upper-level low sliding by to the
north. The track forecast reasoning remains unchanged, as Georgette
should continue northwestward until about 36 hours and then
gradually accelerate westward in the low-level flow as a shallow
system. The new NHC track forecast is a little faster than the
previous one and is close to the latest multi-model consensus.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 25/2100Z 18.0N 127.9W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 26/0600Z 18.4N 128.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 26/1800Z 19.2N 129.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 27/0600Z 20.0N 129.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 27/1800Z 20.9N 131.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 28/1800Z 22.5N 136.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 29/1800Z 22.5N 141.0W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Brennan
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