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TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062016
0300 UTC WED JUL 20 2016
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 121.0W AT 20/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT  11 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  990 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  60 KT WITH GUSTS TO  75 KT.
50 KT....... 70NE  40SE  40SW  60NW.
34 KT.......130NE 120SE  80SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 150SE 150SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 121.0W AT 20/0300Z
AT 20/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 120.4W
 
FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 19.3N 122.8W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 70NE  40SE  40SW  60NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE  80SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 19.7N 125.3W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE  70SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 20.3N 127.8W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE   0SE   0SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  80SE  50SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 21.1N 130.6W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE  60SE  40SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 23.8N 135.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 27.5N 139.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.1N 121.0W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
 
 
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