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HURRICANE CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042016
200 PM PDT TUE JUL 12 2016
The cloud pattern consists of a large ragged eye surrounded by a
ring of moderate convection and a convective curved band to the
east of the eye. The overall amount of convection has been
decreasing during the past 12 hours. The Dvorak T-numbers have
decreased slightly during the day, and the best estimate of the
current intensity is 70 kt. The circulation of Celia has continued
to move over increasingly cooler waters, and SHIPS guidance
indicates a gradual increase in shear. On this basis, the NHC
forecast calls for weakening, and Celia is forecast to be a tropical
depression in about 3 days or sooner.
The best estimate of the initial motion is toward the west-northwest
or 300 degrees at about 11 kt. Global models continue to show a
persistent moderate subtropical ridge north of Celia. This pattern
will continue to steer the cyclone on a west-northwesterly track
for the next 2 to 3 days. After that time, Celia should have become
a shallow cyclone, and will likely move on a westward track steered
by the low-level flow. The track guidance continues to be in very
good agreement, and there is high confidence in the forecast.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 12/2100Z 17.4N 129.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 13/0600Z 18.4N 130.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 13/1800Z 19.6N 133.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 14/0600Z 20.5N 135.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 14/1800Z 21.3N 137.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 15/1800Z 22.5N 141.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 16/1800Z 23.0N 146.0W 25 KT 30 MPH
120H 17/1800Z 24.0N 150.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
Forecaster Avila
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