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TROPICAL STORM AGATHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022016
200 PM PDT SUN JUL 03 2016
Although the low-cloud circulation is well defined, the coverage of
deep convection associated with Agatha has diminished today. The
maximum winds are estimated to be near 40 kt, which is a blend of
Dvorak Current Intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB. The cyclone
will be moving through an environment of increasing southwesterly
shear, drier mid-level air, and cooling SSTs. These factors should
cause weakening, and Agatha is expected to degenerate into a remnant
low in 48 hours, or sooner. The official intensity forecast is
close to the latest LGEM guidance.
The cyclone's estimated motion, 285/12 kt, hasn't changed much from
earlier today. The track forecast reasoning remains about the same
as well. Agatha is being steered by a mid-level ridge to its north
but as the cyclone weakens and becomes shallower, it should move
more westward within the low-level tradewind flow. The official
track forecast is similar to the previous one, and about in the
middle of the dynamical track guidance.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 03/2100Z 17.7N 125.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 04/0600Z 18.1N 126.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 04/1800Z 18.7N 128.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 05/0600Z 19.1N 130.7W 25 KT 30 MPH
48H 05/1800Z 19.2N 132.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 06/1800Z 19.0N 136.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Pasch
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