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TROPICAL STORM EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052016
1000 AM CDT FRI AUG 05 2016
Satellite images and surface observations indicate that a large
portion of the circulation is over the southern Bay of Campeche. It
appears that the cloud pattern was beaten hard by the terrain,
but, one can still see a vigorous cyclonic rotation. This was also
confirmed by this morning's radiosondes from the area. I prefer
to keep the initial intensity generously at 35 kt at this time, and
then adjust it, if necessary, when an Air Force reconnaissance plane
checks the system later today. Little change in intensity is
expected before Earl moves inland again later today or tonight.
The cyclone is forecast to dissipate on Saturday over the high
terrain of southern Mexico.
The circulation is moving toward the west or 280 degrees at 9 kt.
A westward or south-of-due-west track is anticipated until
landfall and beyond. There has not been a change in the guidance,
and the NHC forecast is similiar to the previous one.
The main threat from Earl continues to be heavy rains over a
large portion of Central America and southeastern Mexico, and the
combination of Earl with a broader-scale low-level cyclonic gyre
over the area enhances the rainfall potential. The Mexican Weather
Service (SMN) relayed to NHC that about 7 inches (180 mm) of rain
were measured in Chiapas during the last 24 hours.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 05/1500Z 18.6N 94.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 06/0000Z 18.7N 95.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
24H 06/1200Z 18.5N 97.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND