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TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022016
1100 AM EDT FRI JUN 03 2016
Convection associated with Bonnie has decreased this morning as the
center moves over sea surface temperatures of less than 25C east
of the Gulf Stream. The initial intensity remains 30 kt based on
satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB. While little
change in the wind speed is forecast during the next 48 hours,
Bonnie should degenerate into a remnant low in 24 hours or less due
to the affects of the cold water and increasing vertical wind
shear. The system is then expected to weaken to a trough by 72
hours.
The initial motion is now 080/10. The cyclone should move
generally eastward along the southern edge of the westerlies with
some increase in forward speed until dissipation. The new forecast
track lies near the multi-model consensus.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 03/1500Z 35.9N 72.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 04/0000Z 36.1N 69.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 04/1200Z 36.0N 66.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 05/0000Z 35.6N 63.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 05/1200Z 35.2N 59.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 06/1200Z...DISSIPATED
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Forecaster Beven
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