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TROPICAL STORM RICK DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212015
700 AM PST SAT NOV 21 2015

The center of Rick continues to be exposed to the northwest of
bursting area of deep convection. The initial intensity remains 35
kt, perhaps generously, based on the latest Dvorak estimate from
TAFB. The SHIPS model based off GFS model fields shows that the
mid-level relative humidity is now below 50 percent and shear will
be increasing above 20 kt in the next 24 to 48 hours. These factors,
along with cooling SSTs along the track, should result in Rick
weakening to a depression later today, and becoming a remnant low in
about 36 hours.

The initial motion estimate is 290/11, and Rick should gradually
slow down and turn poleward during the next 2 to 3 days as the ridge
to the north weakens due to an eastward moving mid/upper-level
trough. Late in the period, the shallow remnant of Rick should move
slowly northward to northeastward in weak low-level flow prior to
dissipation. The new NHC track forecast is largely an update of the
previous one and is close to the latest GFS/ECMWF consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  21/1500Z 17.3N 115.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  22/0000Z 17.7N 116.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  22/1200Z 18.6N 117.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  23/0000Z 19.8N 118.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  23/1200Z 20.8N 119.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  24/1200Z 22.0N 119.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  25/1200Z 22.5N 119.0W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  26/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brennan

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