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HURRICANE PATRICIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202015
0300 UTC FRI OCT 23 2015
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PATRICIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
16.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
140 KTS...160 MPH...260 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
MAZATLAN 34 X 4( 4) 10(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14)
SAN BLAS 34 1 46(47) 33(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) X(80)
SAN BLAS 50 X 6( 6) 30(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36)
SAN BLAS 64 X 1( 1) 15(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16)
P VALLARTA 34 2 86(88) 8(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96)
P VALLARTA 50 X 37(37) 33(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) X(70)
P VALLARTA 64 X 17(17) 28(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) X(45)
BARRA NAVIDAD 34 32 65(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97)
BARRA NAVIDAD 50 X 62(62) 5(67) X(67) X(67) X(67) X(67)
BARRA NAVIDAD 64 X 34(34) 5(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) X(39)
MANZANILLO 34 25 65(90) 2(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92)
MANZANILLO 50 X 35(35) 4(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) X(39)
MANZANILLO 64 X 15(15) 4(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19)
L CARDENAS 34 2 2( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
ZIHUATANEJO 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
ISLAS MARIAS 34 1 31(32) 13(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) X(45)
ISLAS MARIAS 50 X 4( 4) 5( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
ISLAS MARIAS 64 X 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
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