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TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP192015
0300 UTC FRI OCT 16 2015

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.2N 122.1W AT 16/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT  11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  25 KT WITH GUSTS TO  35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.2N 122.1W AT 16/0300Z
AT 16/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.2N 121.5W

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 10.1N 124.0W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 10.0N 126.2W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE   0SE   0SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z  9.9N 128.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  40SE  30SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 10.2N 129.6W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  50SE  50SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 11.1N 132.3W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  70SW  90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 12.7N 135.1W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 15.1N 137.8W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.2N 122.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI


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