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TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP192015
200 PM PDT FRI OCT 16 2015

The depression's cloud pattern has increased in organization since
yesterday. A small CDO-like feature appears to be forming over the
estimated low-level center.  There has also been an increase in
banding features and their associated curvature, especially over the
western half of the circulation.  Dvorak intensity estimates have
increased some, and the initial intensity estimate is raised to 30
kt.

Recent fixes suggest that the depression may be slowing down, and
the initial motion estimate could be slightly slower than the
longer-term motion of 265/13.  The cyclone is forecast to maintain a
general westward course underneath a mid-level subtropical ridge
during the next 24 to 36 hours but decelerate as the tail of a
mid- to upper- level trough, extending from the U.S. west coast,
causes the ridge to weaken.  As the ridge weakens further by 36
hours, the cyclone should begin to gain more latitude.  An even
greater in increase in latitude is expected after 96 hours when the
cyclone encounters a more significant weakness west of 140W.  The
official track forecast has changed very little compared to the
previous one and is near the multi-model consensus throughout the
forecast period.

With the increased organization of the cyclone's central features,
intensification seems likely in an environment characterized by
very warm SSTs, low shear, and a moist mid-troposphere.  In fact,
the SHIPS RI index shows a 65 percent chance of a 25-kt increase in
intensity during the next 24 hours.  The official intensity forecast
is raised relative to the previous one, especially during the early
part of the forecast. Given the very conducive large-scale
environment for intensification, it would not be surprising to see
more occur than what is currently forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  16/2100Z  9.5N 126.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  17/0600Z  9.4N 127.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  17/1800Z  9.4N 129.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  18/0600Z  9.5N 131.1W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  18/1800Z 10.0N 132.6W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  19/1800Z 11.3N 135.7W   90 KT 105 MPH
 96H  20/1800Z 13.4N 138.6W   95 KT 110 MPH
120H  21/1800Z 15.5N 140.6W   90 KT 105 MPH

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain

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