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TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP192015
200 PM PDT THU OCT 15 2015

Visible satellite images suggest that the depression is not very
well organized.  The circulation is still somewhat elongated, and
the low-level center is located near the eastern edge of a cluster
of deep convection.  The convection itself also appears to have
lost some organization since earlier today.  The maximum winds
remain 30 kt based on Dvorak CI numbers of 2.0 from TAFB and SAB.
Even though environmental conditions appear conducive for
strengthening, the depression is not in any hurry to intensify.
The hurricane intensity models and the global models all insist
that the depression will strengthen soon.  However, the one
prominent difference in this afternoon's model suite is that the
ECMWF model does not deepen the cyclone for another 48 hours or
so.  Since most of the guidance intensifies the system through 5
days, the NHC intensity forecast remains consistent with the
previous forecasts, making the cyclone a hurricane in about 2-3
days.  This is also consistent with the latest intensity consensus.
However, given the latest ECMWF run and the current structure of the
depression, it's possible that intensification could be delayed.

The initial motion is 265/11 kt.  A mid-level ridge is steering the
depression westward, and this motion is likely to continue for at
least another 48 hours.  After that time, the ridge is forecast to
weaken and give way to a broad trough west of the Baja California
peninsula.  This should allow the cyclone to turn west-northwestward
and then northwestward by day 5.  Although the track models
generally agree on this scenario, the system's weaker representation
in the ECMWF during the first few days causes it to continue
westward beyond 48 hours and make a more gradual turn compared to
the other models.  This now places the ECMWF closer to the UKMET
model, which was the only outlier on the previous forecast cycle.
Based on the new guidance, the NHC track forecast has been shifted
westward and is a little bit slower than the previous forecast,
especially at days 4 and 5.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  15/2100Z 10.1N 120.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  16/0600Z  9.9N 122.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  16/1800Z  9.9N 125.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  17/0600Z  9.8N 127.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  17/1800Z  9.9N 128.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  18/1800Z 10.7N 131.3W   80 KT  90 MPH
 96H  19/1800Z 12.5N 134.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
120H  20/1800Z 15.0N 137.0W   90 KT 105 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

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