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ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132015 200 AM PDT TUE SEP 01 2015 Jimena has changed little since the previous advisory. Microwave data indicate that the hurricane has concentric eyewalls, and the eye temperature has actually warmed a bit during the past few hours. Since the overall satellite presentation has changed little, and Dvorak estimates are T6.0 from TAFB and SAB, the initial intensity is held at 115 kt. Jimena has an expansive outflow shield radiating outward 400 to 600 n mi in all directions from the center, and the UW-CIMSS shear analysis is currently showing less than 5 kt of shear affecting the hurricane. The SHIPS guidance shows the shear staying 5 kt or less for the next 48 hours, and less than 10 kt for the next 72 hours. Sea surface temperatures gradually decrease ahead of Jimena, but they are at least 26C for the entire forecast period. Therefore, there don't seem to be any egregiously hostile conditions during the next few days to induce a quick weakening trend. As has been the case for days, the hurricane models show a gradual weakening trend through the five-day period, while the GFS and ECMWF continue to maintain a much stronger hurricane. As a compromise between these scenarios, the NHC intensity forecast lies near the top end of the intensity guidance, or close to the SHIPS model. This forecast is a little higher than the previous official forecast. The initial motion is 280/11 kt. Jimena is expected to turn west-northwestward toward a break in the subtropical ridge within the next 12 hours, and then northwestward and north-northwestward by days 3 through 5. This forecast reasoning is unchanged from prior advisories, but the track guidance envelope did shift a little west after 48 hours on this cycle. The updated NHC track is therefore nudged westward as well and is close to the TVCN model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0900Z 16.4N 139.1W 115 KT 130 MPH 12H 01/1800Z 16.9N 140.5W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 02/0600Z 17.4N 141.8W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 02/1800Z 17.9N 142.7W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 03/0600Z 18.3N 143.4W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 04/0600Z 19.4N 144.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 05/0600Z 20.7N 145.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 06/0600Z 22.5N 146.3W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg NNNN