ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082015
200 AM PDT TUE JUL 28 2015
There has not been much change with the depression during the last
several hours. Although an area of deep convection has been
persisting near and to the south of the center, the cloud pattern
lacks banding features. The initial wind speed is held at 30 kt, in
agreement with the Dvorak classification from SAB.
The depression is currently experiencing about 15 kt of
north-northwesterly shear, which is the reason why most of the
thunderstorms are located to the south of the center. This
continued shear, in combination with a stable air mass to the north
of the cyclone should allow for only slight strengthening, if any,
during the next day or two. After that time, weakening is expected
when the system moves into an even more stable air mass and over
slightly cooler water. None of the intensity models show significant
strengthening, and the NHC forecast lies near the ICON consensus
model. Most of the global models show the depression opening into a
trough in 3 to 4 days, and the NHC forecast follows that theme by
showing dissipation at 96 hours.
The depression is moving west-northwestward at about 11 kt. A
low- to mid-level ridge located to the north of the system should
cause the cyclone to turn westward by tonight, and that general
motion is forecast to continue until the system dissipates. The
NHC track forecast is just a tad to the south of the previous one,
trending toward the latest guidance.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 28/0900Z 16.2N 128.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 28/1800Z 16.6N 129.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 29/0600Z 16.9N 131.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 29/1800Z 17.2N 134.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 30/0600Z 17.3N 136.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 31/0600Z 17.3N 142.5W 25 KT 30 MPH
96H 01/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
NNNN