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TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE DISCUSSION NUMBER  20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062015
200 AM PDT FRI JUL 17 2015

Data from a recent ASCAT overpass showed that Enrique had not
weakened quite as much as earlier estimated, and that there were
still tropical storm force winds over the northwest quadrant of the
cyclone.  The current intensity estimate is set at 35 kt,
resulting in the redesignation of the system as a tropical storm.
Several hours ago, there was a small burst of deep convection over
the northern portion of the circulation.  Recently, however that
convection is dissipating.  Enrique should be traversing waters
cooler than 25 deg C and entraining rather stable air.  Therefore,
weakening is still anticipated and the system is forecast to
degenerate into a remnant low within 24 hours.  This is also
consistent with the SHIPS guidance.

The center appears to be gradually turning to the left and the
initial motion estimate is now 290/5 kt.  Over the next few days,
Enrique should continue to turn to the left, and move in a general
counterclockwise loop while embedded within a low- to mid-level
cyclonic gyre.  The official track forecast is a blend of the
latest GFS and ECMWF predictions.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  17/0900Z 20.6N 136.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  17/1800Z 20.7N 137.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  18/0600Z 20.5N 137.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  18/1800Z 20.0N 137.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  19/0600Z 19.9N 137.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  20/0600Z 20.4N 137.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  21/0600Z 21.5N 137.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  22/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

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