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HURRICANE DOLORES DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052015
300 PM MDT MON JUL 13 2015

Dolores is strengthening.  Visible satellite imagery shows the
inner core of the cyclone becoming better organized, and a ragged
eye has become evident during the past few hours.  There is also
a long curved band wrapping entirely around the circulation.  The
upper-level outflow continues to be restricted to the west, likely
the result of a persistent west-northwesterly flow associated with
a trough to the northwest. A Dvorak classification of T4.0 from
SAB and a UW-CIMSS ADT value of 4.5 are used to raise the initial
intensity to 65 kt.

Recent fixes suggest that Dolores' forward speed has decreased
considerably since this morning, and the initial motion estimate is
295/08. Dolores is about to reach the western edge of a subtropical
ridge over the south-central United States, which should result in
continued west-northwestward motion but at an even slower forward
speed.  The subtropical ridge is forecast to rebuild some in 48 to
72 hours, but the ECMWF and GFS are still at odds on exactly how
much.  These models and the remaining model suite have track
solutions that are significantly divergent late in the period,
and the official track forecast has been adjusted close to the
multi-model consensus, which is nearly midway between the ECWMF and
GFS.  The track forecast has also been slowed down throughout the
forecast period, following the trends of the latest guidance.

Nearly optimal thermodynamic parameters such as sea surface
temperatures of 29-30 deg C and high tropospheric moisture in the
near-storm environment should promote further strengthening.  Only
some west-northwesterly shear could slow the rate of intensification
during the next 12 to 24 hours.  After that time, Dolores seems
poised to reach major hurricane strength and could potentially
intensify more than forecast as a result of the very conducive
environmental factors.  A gradual spin-down of the vortex is
forecast after 72 hours once the cyclone reaches cooler waters
and a drier and more stable atmosphere.  The statistical guidance
has responded to the current intensification and shows Dolores
reaching a peak intensity of around 105 kt in 48-72 hours, and the
official forecast follows suit.  The official forecast continues to
be above the multi-model intensity consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  13/2100Z 17.2N 106.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  14/0600Z 17.5N 107.1W   75 KT  85 MPH
 24H  14/1800Z 17.8N 108.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
 36H  15/0600Z 18.1N 108.8W   95 KT 110 MPH
 48H  15/1800Z 18.6N 109.9W  105 KT 120 MPH
 72H  16/1800Z 19.8N 112.2W  105 KT 120 MPH
 96H  17/1800Z 21.0N 115.4W   90 KT 105 MPH
120H  18/1800Z 22.2N 118.9W   70 KT  80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain

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