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HURRICANE BLANCA DISCUSSION NUMBER  27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022015
300 AM MDT SUN JUN 07 2015

Recent satellite imagery shows that cloud pattern of Blanca becoming
less organized.  The eye has shrunk and become less distinct while
the convection has eroded in the eastern semicircle due to about 20
kt of southeasterly shear.  Recent microwave imagery also suggests
that some tilt is developing between the low and mid-level
circulations.  The initial intensity is lowered to 95 kt based on a
blend of the latest Dvorak Final-T and CI numbers from TAFB and SAB.
The pace of weakening should accelerate as the center of Blanca
crosses the 26 deg C isotherm later today, and the NHC forecast
follows this trend.  The official forecast continues to be a little
higher than the IVCN consensus aid and is closest to the LGEM.  The
low-level circulation of Blanca is expected to dissipate by 72 hours
after interacting with the topography of the Baja California
peninsula.

The initial motion estimate is 335/10, and this general motion is
expected to continue until the cyclone dissipates as Blanca moves
between a mid-level anticyclone centered over northern Mexico and a
trough that extends from the western U.S. southwestward over the
adjacent Pacific.  The track model guidance is in good agreement,
and the new NHC track forecast is largely an update of the previous
one and lies near the middle of the guidance envelope.

Moisture associated with the remnants of Blanca is expected to
affect portions of the southwestern United States later this week.
For more information, please see products from your local National
Weather Service office.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  07/0900Z 19.8N 110.8W   95 KT 110 MPH
 12H  07/1800Z 21.2N 111.2W   80 KT  90 MPH
 24H  08/0600Z 23.6N 112.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  08/1800Z 25.8N 112.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  09/0600Z 27.7N 113.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 72H  10/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brennan

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