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HURRICANE BLANCA DISCUSSION NUMBER  20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022015
900 AM MDT FRI JUN 05 2015

The intensity of Blanca has been oscillating around 85 and 90 kt
since yesterday. Latest satellite intensity estimates indicate
that there has been no change, and the winds are currently 85 kt.
Deep convection is beginning to increase and is becoming better
organized around the large circulation center. This could be an
indication that some restrengthening is about to begin. The
hurricane has about 24 hours to do so before the SSTs decrease,
which should result in gradual weakening. In fact, Blanca is
forecast to be a tropical storm as it moves near the southern Baja
California peninsula and become a remnant low over the high terrain
of the peninsula. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is
en route to investigate Blanca and will provide more information
regarding the intensity and structure of the cyclone.

The best estimate of the initial motion is toward the northwest or
320 degrees at 9 kt. The hurricane is moving around the southwestern
periphery of a subtropical ridge over the United States and northern
Mexico. As Blanca gains latitude, it will become steered by the
southerly flow ahead of an approaching mid-latitude trough and
turn more toward the north. The dynamical guidance is now in much
better agreement, bringing the cyclone near or over the southern
Baja California peninsula beyond 48 hours or so. The NHC forecast is
similar to the previous one, and is in the middle of the very tight
guidance envelope.

Moisture associated with Blanca is moving northward and could help
produce heavy rainfall over portions of southwestern Mexico during
the next day or so, especially in areas of mountainous terrain.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  05/1500Z 15.1N 106.9W   85 KT 100 MPH
 12H  06/0000Z 16.1N 107.9W   90 KT 105 MPH
 24H  06/1200Z 17.6N 109.0W   95 KT 110 MPH
 36H  07/0000Z 19.4N 109.8W   75 KT  85 MPH
 48H  07/1200Z 21.0N 110.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  08/1200Z 24.5N 111.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 96H  09/1200Z 27.0N 112.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
120H  10/1200Z 28.0N 113.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND

$$
Forecaster Avila

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