ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL
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HURRICANE BLANCA DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022015
400 PM CDT THU JUN 04 2015
The hurricane has continued to weaken as it moves slowly over its
own cold wake. Dvorak T-numbers are decreasing, and the current
estimate of the initial intensity is 85 kt, which could be generous.
Most of the deep convection has spread out and is concentrated in
few bands well removed from the center. However, the hurricane
still has the chance to restrengthen as soon as it moves
away from the area where the upwelling has occurred. The NHC
forecast is again consistent with the SHIPS intensity guidance,
and allows some intensification during the next 24 to 36 hours.
Thereafter, increasing shear and cool waters should induce gradual
weakening as Blanca approaches the Baja California peninsula.
Blanca is moving toward the northwest or 320 degrees at 5 knots.
The subtropical ridge which has been blocking the motion of the
cyclone is already moving eastward, and most likely the hurricane
will continue northwestward or north-northwestward with some
increase of forward speed around the periphery of the ridge. The NHC
forecast is similar to the previous one and is very close to the
consensus of the ECMWF and the GFS global models. However, it
remains on the left side of the guidance envelope.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 04/2100Z 12.8N 105.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 05/0600Z 13.7N 106.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 05/1800Z 15.3N 107.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 06/0600Z 16.7N 108.7W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 06/1800Z 18.2N 109.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 07/1800Z 21.0N 110.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 08/1800Z 24.0N 111.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 09/1800Z 26.8N 113.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND