Skip Navigation Links
NOAA NOAA United States Department of Commerce

Hurricane ANDRES


200 PM PDT SUN MAY 31 2015

The satellite presentation of Andres has improved considerably since
this morning.  The eye has become more distinct and warmed in
infrared imagery, and is now surrounded by a ring of cloud tops of
about -60C to -70C.  Objective and subjective Dvorak estimates have
increased, and currently range from T5.5/102 kt to T6.1/117 kt.  The
initial intensity has been raised to 110 kt for this advisory.
Beyond the observed intensity increase today, the overall intensity
forecast reasoning has not changed.  The cyclone will be moving over
cooler waters during the forecast period, and should cross the 26C
isotherm in about 36 hours, which should result in weakening.  More
rapid weakening forecast at 48 hours and beyond, with Andres
forecast to become a remnant low in about 4 days as the shear
increases over very cool SSTs.  The new NHC intensity forecast is
higher than the previous one through 48 hours to account for the
initial intensity, and is similar after that.  The official
forecast is generally close to the IVCN intensity consensus.

The hurricane has jogged to the left since this morning, with an
initial motion of 270/07.  Andres should gradually turn poleward
during the next several days as a weakness develops in the
subtropical ridge around 125W.  There remains a fair bit of spread
in the track guidance throughout the period.  The UKMET and ECMWF
are initially to the left of the rest of the guidance for the first
12 to 24 hours, and the NHC forecast trends towards those aids given
the more westerly initial motion.  Late in the period, all of the
dynamical models now show a turn toward the north and northeast, but
significant spread remains.  Given that Andres should be sheared
apart by days 4 and 5, the NHC forecast shows only a slow northward
drift, in better agreement with the ECMWF and GEFS ensemble mean.
The GFS remains an outlier with a track that appears to go too far
to the northeast for such a weak system.  Beyond 24 hours, the new
NHC track is similar to or a little to the right of the previous
one, adjusted for the initial position and motion, and lies
a little to the left of the multi-model consensus.

The initial 34-kt and 50-kt wind radii have been adjusted based on a
recent ASCAT pass.

Andres is only the fifth major hurricane to form in the basin in
May since reliable records began in 1970. Previous May major
hurricanes were Adolph (2001), Alma (2002), Bud (2012), and Amanda


INIT  31/2100Z 15.3N 118.8W  110 KT 125 MPH
 12H  01/0600Z 15.5N 119.7W  100 KT 115 MPH
 24H  01/1800Z 16.3N 121.1W   90 KT 105 MPH
 36H  02/0600Z 17.2N 122.7W   80 KT  90 MPH
 48H  02/1800Z 18.2N 124.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  03/1800Z 19.5N 126.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  04/1800Z 20.0N 126.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  05/1800Z 20.5N 126.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

Forecaster Brennan