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HURRICANE KATE DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122015
500 AM AST WED NOV 11 2015

The overall structure of Kate has again not changed much in
conventional satellite imagery since the previous advisory, with the
center in an area of strong convection.  However, a just received
AMSR microwave overpass shows that the convective banding has become
better defined near the center.  Based on this and satellite
intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB of 65 kt, Kate is upgraded to
a hurricane.

The initial motion is 055/35.  Kate is now embedded in the
westerlies between the subtropical ridge and a baroclinic low near
New England.  The tropical cyclone should continue a general
east-northeastward motion across the North Atlantic for the next
several days.  However, a decrease in forward speed and some
erratic motion are expected around 36-48 hours as Kate interacts
with, and eventually absorbs, the baroclinic low.  Despite the
complexity added by the merger, the track guidance is in excellent
agreement with only a small spread in direction and speed.  The new
forecast track is a little north of the previous track and lies
near the various consensus models.

A combination of increasing shear and decreasing sea surface
temperatures should prevent any additional intensification.  Kate
should begin extratropical transition in 12-24 hours and complete it
by 36 hours as the cyclone absorbs the baroclinic low.  The
resulting extratropical low is forecast to be absorbed by a front
over the north Atlantic in 4 to 5 days.

The extratropical portion of Kate's forecast was coordinated with
the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  11/0900Z 36.0N  65.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  11/1800Z 38.1N  59.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  12/0600Z 40.8N  53.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  12/1800Z 42.3N  50.2W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  13/0600Z 42.5N  47.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  14/0600Z 46.5N  36.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  15/0600Z 54.0N  22.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  16/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

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