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TROPICAL STORM ERIKA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  16A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052015
800 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

...ERIKA DUMPING HEAVY RAINS ACROSS HISPANIOLA...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.3N 72.0W
ABOUT 25 MI...45 KM SE OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
ABOUT 210 MI...335 KM SSE OF GREAT INAGUA ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic
* Haiti
* Southeastern Bahamas
* Turks and Caicos Islands
* Central Bahamas

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Northwestern Bahamas
* The Cuban Provinces of Ciego de Avila, Camaguey, Las Tunas,
Holguin, and Guantanamo

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in eastern and central Cuba, as well as the
southern Florida Peninsula and Florida Keys, should monitor the
progress of Erika.  Additional watches and warnings could be
needed for these areas on Saturday after Erika moves off of
Hispaniola.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside
the United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
The broad circulation of Erika is gradually moving inland over
Haiti, and at 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm
Erika was estimated near latitude 18.3 North, longitude 72.0 West.
Erika is moving toward the west near 21 mph (33 km/h).  A turn
toward the west-northwest or northwest is expected tonight, with
this motion continuing with a decrease in forward speed through
Sunday.  On the forecast track, the center of Erika will move over
western Haiti and the Gulf of Gonave early Saturday and will be near
the southeastern Bahamas or eastern Cuba on Saturday afternoon.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. Erika is forecast to weaken to a tropical depression on
Saturday, but there is a good possibility that Erika could
even degenerate into a trough of low pressure while it is
moving over the high terrain of Hispaniola and eastern Cuba.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
to the east of the center.  Barahona in the western portion of
the Dominican Republic is reporting wind gusts to 40 mph (65 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure, based on observations from
the Dominican Republic and Haiti, is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions across portions of the Dominican
Republic are gradually subsiding. Tropical storm conditions are
expected to spread across Haiti, the Turks and Caicos Islands and
the southeastern Bahamas tonight, and the central Bahamas on
Saturday.  Tropical storm conditions are possible over eastern Cuba
on Saturday and in the northwestern Bahamas by Saturday night.

RAINFALL: Erika is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations
of 3 to 6 inches with maximum amounts of 10 inches possible across
portions of the Dominican Republic and Haiti, the Turks and Caicos
Islands, eastern Cuba, and the southeastern and central Bahamas
through Saturday.  An additional 1 to 2 inches are expected in
Puerto Rico.  These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods
and mud slides.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila

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