ZCZC MIATCPAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015
1100 AM AST FRI AUG 28 2015
...CENTER OF ERIKA NOW SOUTH OF THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF CUBA...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM SSE OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
ABOUT 340 MI...550 KM SE OF GREAT INAGUA ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
The Government of Cuba has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the
provinces of Ciego de Avila, Camaguey, Las Tunas, Holguin, and
The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued for the U. S.
The Meteorological Service of Antigua has discontinued the Tropical
Storm Warning for the British Virgin Islands.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Puerto Rico
* Dominican Republic
* Southeastern Bahamas
* Turks and Caicos Islands
* Central Bahamas
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Northwestern Bahamas
* The Cuban Provinces of Ciego de Avila, Camaguey, Las Tunas,
Holguin, and Guantanamo
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
Interests elsewhere in eastern and central Cuba, as well as the
southern Florida Peninsula and Florida Keys, should monitor the
progress of Erika.
For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside
the United States, please monitor products issued by your national
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Erika was
located near latitude 17.7 North, longitude 69.4 West. Erika is
moving toward the west-northwest near 18 mph (30 km/h) and this
general motion is expected to continue for the next 48 hours. On
the forecast track, the center of Erika will move over the Dominican
Republic this afternoon, move near the Turks and Caicos Islands
tonight, and move near the central and northwestern Bahamas Saturday
and Saturday night.
Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some weakening is forecast this afternoon and tonight as
Erika moves over land, followed by little change in strength through
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km)
to the east of the center. Punta Cana at the eastern end of the
Dominican Republic recently reported a wind gust of 40 mph
The minimum central pressure based on Hurricane Hunter aircraft
data is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
WIND: Tropical storm conditions affecting Puerto Rico will continue
for the next several hours before subsiding later today. Tropical
storm conditions are currently spreading across portions of the
Dominican Republic. Tropical storm conditions are expected to
spread across Haiti today, the Turks and Caicos Islands and the
southeastern Bahamas later today and tonight, and the central
Bahamas on Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the
northwestern Bahamas by Saturday night.
RAINFALL: Erika is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations
of 3 to 6 inches with maximum amounts of 10 inches possible across
portions of the Dominican Republic and Haiti, the Turks and Caicos
Islands, and the southeastern and central Bahamas through Saturday.
An additional 1 to 2 inches is expected for Puerto Rico. These
rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.