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TROPICAL STORM ERIKA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052015
2100 UTC FRI AUG 28 2015

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
* HAITI
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
* CENTRAL BAHAMAS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
* THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF CIEGO DE AVILA...CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS,
HOLGUIN...AND GUANTANAMO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN EASTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA...AS WELL AS THE
SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA AND FLORIDA KEYS...SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF ERIKA.  ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS COULD BE
NEEDED FOR THESE AREAS ON SATURDAY AFTER ERIKA MOVES OFF OF
HISPANIOLA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N  71.2W AT 28/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT  18 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT.......120NE 120SE   0SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 150SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N  71.2W AT 28/2100Z
AT 28/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.6N  70.4W

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 19.5N  73.5W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...120NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 21.3N  76.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 22.7N  79.3W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 24.0N  81.0W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 27.0N  82.5W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z 29.0N  82.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z 31.0N  82.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.9N  71.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


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