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NOAA NOAA United States Department of Commerce

Hurricane DANNY


ZCZC MIAPWSAT4 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
                                                                    
HURRICANE DANNY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  11                 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042015               
0300 UTC FRI AUG 21 2015                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DANNY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE    
13.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 46.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
70 KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/H.                                         
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
GRAND TURK     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)
 
LES CAYES      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
 
PORT-AU-PRINCE 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)
 
CAPE BEATA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)
 
PUERTO PLATA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)
 
SANTO DOMINGO  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   7( 9)
 
PONCE          34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)   7(16)
PONCE          50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
SAN JUAN       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  11(11)   6(17)
 
SAINT THOMAS   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  13(14)   5(19)
SAINT THOMAS   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
SAINT CROIX    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  13(14)   5(19)
SAINT CROIX    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)
 
SAINT MAARTEN  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  14(18)   3(21)
SAINT MAARTEN  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)
 
ST KITTS-NEVIS 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)  16(22)   2(24)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)
 
BARBUDA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  10(10)  13(23)   2(25)
BARBUDA        50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   X( 5)
 
ANTIGUA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  10(10)  15(25)   1(26)
ANTIGUA        50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   1( 6)
 
GUADELOUPE     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  10(10)  12(22)   1(23)
GUADELOUPE     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   X( 6)
GUADELOUPE     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
AVES           34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  11(14)   3(17)
AVES           50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)
 
DOMINICA       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)  10(19)   1(20)
DOMINICA       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)
DOMINICA       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
MARTINIQUE     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   7(15)   X(15)
MARTINIQUE     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)
 
SAINT LUCIA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   4( 9)   1(10)
 
SAINT VINCENT  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)   1( 6)
 
BARBADOS       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   1( 6)   1( 7)
 
GRENADA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BERG                                                     
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