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TROPICAL STORM DANNY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042015
0900 UTC WED AUG 19 2015
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DANNY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 11.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 40.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
PONCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
SAN JUAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5)
SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7)
SAINT CROIX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8)
SAINT CROIX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
SAINT CROIX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)
SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14)
SAINT MAARTEN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
SAINT MAARTEN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2)
BARBUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 17(19)
BARBUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6)
BARBUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2)
ANTIGUA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 18(20)
ANTIGUA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6)
ANTIGUA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
GUADELOUPE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 16(18)
GUADELOUPE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7)
GUADELOUPE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
AVES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10)
AVES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
AVES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)
DOMINICA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 14(16)
DOMINICA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6)
DOMINICA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
MARTINIQUE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15)
MARTINIQUE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5)
MARTINIQUE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2)
SAINT LUCIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12)
SAINT LUCIA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
SAINT LUCIA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2)
SAINT VINCENT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10)
SAINT VINCENT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
SAINT VINCENT 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)
BARBADOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 11(15)
BARBADOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6)
BARBADOS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
GRENADA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6)
GRENADA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)
TRINIDADTOBAGO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6)
PORT OF SPAIN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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