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Tropical Storm DANNY


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TROPICAL STORM DANNY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042015
0900 UTC WED AUG 19 2015
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.3N  40.2W AT 19/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT  12 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE  60SE  15SW  15NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.3N  40.2W AT 19/0900Z
AT 19/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.2N  39.6W
 
FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 11.7N  41.6W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 12.2N  43.2W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 12.6N  44.6W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE   0SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 13.2N  46.3W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  60SE  50SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 14.5N  50.0W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  60SW  70NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z 15.5N  54.0W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 16.5N  59.0W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.3N  40.2W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 
 
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