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TROPICAL STORM BILL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022015
700 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015
...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS BILL A LITTLE STRONGER AS IT MOVES
CLOSER TO THE TEXAS COAST...
...EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINS TO PORTIONS OF TEXAS...
SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM ESE OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM SW OF GALVESTON TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Baffin Bay to High Island Texas
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.
For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bill was
located near latitude 28.2 North, longitude 96.0 West. Bill is
moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h) and this general
motion is expected to continue today. On the forecast track, the
center of Bill is expected to make landfall in the warning area
along the Texas coast later this morning and move inland over
south-central Texas this afternoon and tonight.
Reports from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicate
that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h)
with higher gusts. Little additional strengthening is expected
before landfall occurs in a few hours. Weakening is forecast after
the center moves inland later today, and Bill is expected to weaken
to a tropical depression tonight.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km)
from the center. During the past hour, a WeatherFlow observing
station at Matagorda Bay reported a wind gust to 45 mph (72 km/h).
The estimated minimum central pressure based on reconnaissance
data is 997 mb (29.44 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
RAINFALL: Bill is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
4 to 8 inches over eastern Texas and eastern Oklahoma and 2 to 4
inches over western Arkansas and southern Missouri, with possible
isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches in eastern Texas.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach the coast
within the warning area within the next hour or two.
STORM SURGE: The combination of a storm surge and the tide will
cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising
waters. The water could reach the following heights above ground if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
Upper Texas coast...2 to 4 feet
Western Louisiana coast...1 to 2 feet
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the right of the landfall location. Surge-related flooding depends
on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can
vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your
area, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office.
TORNADOES: A few tornadoes will be possible across portions of
eastern Texas and far western Louisiana today and tonight.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.