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Hurricane ODILE


200 AM PDT SUN SEP 14 2014

Odile has continue to rapidly strengthen overnight with the eye
becoming more distinct in infrared satellite imagery. Recent
microwave imagery shows a well-defined eye, and a long convection
band that appears to be beginning of a concentric eyewall.
Subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are 115 kt,
and the latest UW-CIMSS ADT estimate is around 105 kt.  Based on
these data, the initial wind speed is increased to 115 kt. Odile is
the seventh major hurricane to form in the eastern North Pacific
basin this season, which is only one shy of the record since the
advent of satellite imagery.

The hurricane is moving north-northwestward a little faster than
before, with an initial motion of 330 degrees at 13 kt.  Odile
should turn northwestward today as it is steered around the western
portion of a strengthening ridge over the southern United States.
The track guidance is tightly clustered during the first 2 to 3 days
of the forecast period and the NHC forecast is near the middle of
the guidance envelope.  The updated NHC track is very close to the
previous advisory through 72 hours.  Later in the period, the GFS
and ECMWF show the cyclone continuing northwestward at a slower
forward speed, while some of the models indicate a more
north-northwestward or northward motion at days 4 and 5.  The NHC
track leans toward the ECMWF and GFS solutions late in the forecast

Warm water and low shear during the next 12 hours should allow for
some additional strengthening, but the rate of intensification is
expected to slow later today.  In addition during the next day or
so, an eyewall replacement cycle could cause some fluctuations in
intensity.  By Monday, the hurricane will be moving over cooler
water and weakening should begin.  Rapid weakening is likely in a
couple of days as Odile moves over even colder waters and into a
more stable airmass as well as potential land interactions.  The
updated NHC forecast shows a higher peak intensity due to the higher
initial intensity.  After 24 hours, the NHC forecast is similar to
the previous advisory and a little below the intensity consensus.

Users are reminded to not focus on the exact forecast track, as
strong winds and heavy rainfall extend well away from the center of
Odile.  In addition, moisture from a disturbance over northeastern
Mexico and the Pacific ITCZ is forecast to be advected by Odile's
circulation northwestward across Mexico into the southwestern United
States by early next week.   This could result in heavy rains and
life-threatening flash flooding in those areas.  Please see
information from your local weather office for more details.


INIT  14/0900Z 19.1N 107.3W  115 KT 135 MPH
 12H  14/1800Z 20.7N 108.6W  130 KT 150 MPH
 24H  15/0600Z 22.7N 110.5W  125 KT 145 MPH
 36H  15/1800Z 24.3N 112.1W  105 KT 120 MPH
 48H  16/0600Z 25.6N 113.4W   90 KT 105 MPH
 72H  17/0600Z 27.3N 115.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  18/0600Z 28.2N 116.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  19/0600Z 28.5N 116.5W   30 KT  35 MPH

Forecaster Brown