Hurricane MARIE

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HURRICANE MARIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132014
800 AM PDT TUE AUG 26 2014

Microwave data show that Marie continues to have a complicated
inner core structure, with an remnant inner eyewall surrounded
by a pair of larger concentric eyewall rings.  Dvorak estimates are
still falling, so the initial intensity is lowered to 85 kt.
Steady-to-rapid weakening of Marie is expected with the cyclone now
crossing the 26.5C isotherm into much colder waters.  The intensity
forecast is a blend of the previous NHC prediction, the intensity
consensus and the Florida State Superensemble.  Marie should become
a non-convective post-tropical cyclone in about 2 days when it moves
over waters colder than 23C, although there will likely still be
gale-force winds for some time after the transition.

The initial motion is 300/13 kt.  Model guidance is in excellent
agreement on a west-northwestward to northwestward motion during
the next few days while the system remains steered by mid-level
ridging to its northeast.  Marie should slow and turn toward the
north-northwest by day 4 due to it reaching the western periphery of
the ridge.  The remnants of the cyclone are then expected to drift
westward after that time within an area of light steering.  Only a
small southwestward adjustment has been made to the official
forecast at long range to come into better agreement with the
consensus models.

Very large southerly swells continue to affect much of the Baja
California peninsula, and will soon reach the southern California
coast. These swells are expected to persist for a couple of days,
and could produce life-threatening surf and rip currents, as well as
minor coastal flooding around the time of high tide.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  26/1500Z 20.7N 119.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
 12H  27/0000Z 21.6N 120.8W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  27/1200Z 22.6N 123.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  28/0000Z 23.7N 125.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  28/1200Z 25.1N 128.3W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 72H  29/1200Z 28.1N 131.8W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 96H  30/1200Z 30.5N 133.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  31/1200Z 30.5N 133.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Blake

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