Tropical Storm KARINA
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TROPICAL STORM KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112014
200 PM PDT FRI AUG 15 2014
The cloud pattern associated with Karina has been gradually
deteriorating during the day. Microwave data reveal that the center
continues to be located to the north of a small area of deep
convection. The upper-level outflow is very limited due to
northeasterly shear. Consequently, the Dvorak T-numbers have
continued to decrease, supporting a generous initial intensity of 45
knots. It appears that Karina will continue within an environment
unfavorable for strengthening, but not hostile enough to weaken the
cyclone either. The NHC forecast calls for no change in intensity
during the next 5 days, although there is a small possibility of
slight strengthening beyond 4 days, when the cyclone reaches warmer
waters. In fact, this is the solution of the HWRF model.
The best estimate of the initial motion is 280 degrees at 10 knots.
Karina continues to be steered by the flow around a persistent
subtropical ridge. Most of the global models build the ridge
westward beyond 3 days, and this pattern should force Karina to move
on a more west to west-southwest track with a decrease in forward
speed. By day 5, Karina will probably begin to meander within a
very weak steering flow. The NHC forecast is similar to the previous
one and follows the trend of the multi-model consensus.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 15/2100Z 17.6N 121.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 16/0600Z 18.0N 122.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 16/1800Z 18.3N 125.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 17/0600Z 18.3N 127.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 17/1800Z 18.1N 129.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 18/1800Z 17.5N 131.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 19/1800Z 17.0N 134.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 20/1800Z 17.0N 135.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
$$
Forecaster Avila
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