Tropical Storm JULIO

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TROPICAL STORM JULIO DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP102014
800 PM PDT MON AUG 04 2014

Conventional satellite imagery and an earlier GCOM AMSR2 microwave
overpass show that Julio's cloud pattern continues to
gradually improve. Cold tops of -80 C are now evident in
association with the developing banding feature south of the center.
The AMSR2 pass as well as visible imagery also indicated that deep
convection is now wrapping around the northeast portion of the
cyclone despite the relatively moderate northeasterly shear.
However, the Dvorak subjective and ADT objective satellite
intensity estimates remain unchanged from the previous advisory and
the initial intensity is held at a conservative 50 kt.  No
significant changes were made to the intensity forecast from the
previous package.  However, the forecast now shows a peak intensity
of 90 kt at the 48- and 72-hour time frame to correspond more with
the SHIPS and Florida State Superensemble.

Julio has continued to move at a swift pace this evening and the
initial motion is estimated to be 270/14.  A mid-tropospheric ridge
extending from the southwest United States and Mexico into the
eastern Pacific should steer the cyclone on the same heading and
at a similar forward speed during the next 4 days. After that time,
the large-scale models show the western extent of the ridge
weakening in response to a mid-latitude trough approaching the
Hawaiian Islands from the northwest.  This change in the steering
pattern should cause Julio to turn gradually toward the west-
northwest, and the model guidance has shifted northward late in the
period on this cycle.  The NHC track forecast is therefore
adjusted northward, and lies just to the south of the TVCE multi-
model consensus and the Florida State Superensemble.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  05/0300Z 13.5N 122.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  05/1200Z 13.7N 124.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  06/0000Z 14.2N 127.4W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  06/1200Z 14.7N 130.3W   80 KT  90 MPH
 48H  07/0000Z 15.2N 133.2W   90 KT 105 MPH
 72H  08/0000Z 16.0N 138.9W   90 KT 105 MPH
 96H  09/0000Z 16.5N 145.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
120H  10/0000Z 18.0N 151.0W   65 KT  75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Roberts

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