Tropical Storm DOUGLAS

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TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042014
800 PM PDT TUE JUL 01 2014

Douglas has maintained a tight curved band of deep convection near
its center, primarily within the western semicircle.  Consequently,
the TAFB and SAB Dvorak CI numbers have remained the same and thus
the intensity is kept at 40 kt.  While Douglas should remain under
light vertical shear for the next few days, the gradually cooling
waters and drier stable air that the cyclone will encounter
should cause the convection to diminish and, in about 36-48 hours,
eventually to cease.  The large size of Douglas suggests that it
will wind down gradually, even if the convection dissipates quicker
than expected. The intensity forecast is based upon the tight
consensus of intensity models and is nearly the same as that in the
previous advisory.

Douglas has been meandering this evening with a longer-term motion
of 340/2.  The steering for the cyclone has nearly collapsed as the
mid-level ridge to the north has weakened due to a short-wave
trough impinging upon it.  As Douglas becomes a weaker, shallower
vortex, it should be advected faster toward the west-northwest
in about 3 days and then westward by day 5 in the low-level
tradewind flow. The track forecast is based upon the tightly
clustered multi-model consensus - TVCE - with somewhat less weight
placed upon the ECMWF model, since this model has had a distinct
equatorward bias for Douglas. This track prediction is slightly
poleward of that from the previous advisory.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/0300Z 19.4N 115.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  02/1200Z 19.7N 115.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  03/0000Z 20.1N 116.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  03/1200Z 20.4N 116.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  04/0000Z 20.8N 116.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  05/0000Z 22.0N 119.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  06/0000Z 23.0N 122.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  07/0000Z 23.0N 125.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Landsea

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