Tropical Storm CRISTINA
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TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032014
800 AM PDT SAT JUN 14 2014
Cristina's convective organization is degrading quickly, with the
low-level center located near the southwestern edge of an
elongating convective band. A blend of the Final-T and CI numbers
from TAFB, SAB, and the ADT support downgrading Cristina to a 60-kt
tropical storm on this advisory. Vertical shear will continue to
increase during the next day or two, and Cristina will also be
moving over sub-26C water in about 12-24 hours. Therefore, steady
weakening is forecast to continue, and the cyclone will likely
become a remnant low in 36-48 hours and dissipate by day 5. The NHC
intensity forecast favors a fairly quick weakening rate and is
closest to the Florida State Superensemble and the HWRF model.
Cristina has slowed down a bit, and the initial motion is 310/5 kt.
Now that vertical shear is decoupling the system, the cyclone is
likely to turn toward the west-northwest later today and maintain
that heading through 48 hours. After that time, a break in the
subtropical ridge should allow the remnant low to turn toward the
north-northwest before it dissipates. This northward trend has
been observed in several model cycles, and the NHC track forecast
has again been shifted northward on days 3 and 4.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 14/1500Z 19.4N 111.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 15/0000Z 19.8N 112.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 15/1200Z 20.2N 113.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 16/0000Z 20.6N 114.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 16/1200Z 21.0N 115.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 17/1200Z 22.0N 116.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 18/1200Z 23.0N 117.0W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Berg
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