Hurricane GONZALO

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HURRICANE GONZALO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082014
0900 UTC SAT OCT 18 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS CHANGED THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR
BERMUDA TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS EFFECT FOR...
* ARNOLDS COVE TO CHAPELS COVE NEWFOUNDLAND

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.7N  63.2W AT 18/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR  30 DEGREES AT  19 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  955 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
50 KT....... 70NE  80SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT.......130NE 150SE 110SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 320SE 220SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.7N  63.2W AT 18/0900Z
AT 18/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.7N  63.8W

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 38.2N  60.5W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  40NW.
50 KT... 80NE  90SE  70SW  60NW.
34 KT...150NE 170SE 120SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 44.2N  54.4W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  60SE  50SW  40NW.
50 KT... 80NE 100SE  70SW  60NW.
34 KT...160NE 210SE 150SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 49.7N  44.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 150SE  90SW   0NW.
34 KT...140NE 270SE 180SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 53.0N  31.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 320SE 320SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 56.0N   3.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...150NE 270SE 420SW 480NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.7N  63.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN


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