Hurricane CRISTOBAL

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HURRICANE CRISTOBAL DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042014
1100 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2014

Based on a blend of SFMR, flight-level, and dropsonde wind data
collected by a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft a little earlier this
evening, Cristobal was upgraded to a 65-kt hurricane.  Similar to
Hurricane Bertha earlier this year in roughly the same location,
this system's cloud pattern does not resemble that of a hurricane,
with little or no evidence of banding on satellite images.  Some
additional strengthening is expected, however, since the SHIPS
guidance shows a decrease in vertical shear during the next few
days, and an increase in upper-level divergence is indicated by the
global models.  The official intensity forecast is a little higher
than the previous one, and is close to the latest LGEM guidance.

The center fixes by the NOAA aircraft indicated an eastward wobble
several hours ago, but recent satellite imagery hints that a slow
north-northeastward motion has resumed.  The initial motion estimate
is a rather uncertain 030/2 kt.  In spite of the erratic motion and
eastward shift of the center, the track model guidance remains in
good agreement that Cristobal will move along a track similar to the
previous NHC forecast.  Over the next couple of days, the hurricane
is expected to move through a weakness between two mid-level high
pressure areas.  Thereafter, as Cristobal begins to enter the
mid-latitude westerlies and a shortwave trough moves off the
northeast United States coastline,  the tropical cyclone should
accelerate northeastward into the North Atlantic. The current
official forecast is not much different from the previous one, and
close to the GFS ensemble mean solution.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  26/0300Z 25.1N  71.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  26/1200Z 26.9N  71.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  27/0000Z 29.3N  70.8W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  27/1200Z 31.8N  70.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 48H  28/0000Z 34.0N  68.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 72H  29/0000Z 39.0N  58.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 96H  30/0000Z 45.0N  45.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  31/0000Z 51.0N  35.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Pasch

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