Tropical Storm RAYMOND

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TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172013
200 AM PDT SUN OCT 20 2013
 
ALTHOUGH THE CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED UP A LITTLE BIT DURING THE PAST
COUPLE OF HOURS...CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MICROWAVE DATA
INDICATE THAT THE OVERALL ORGANIZATION OF THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS
IMPROVED. BASED ON DVORAK T-NUMBERS OF 2.5 FROM BOTH TAFB AND
SAB...THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM STATUS...
THE 17TH NAMED STORM OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC SEASON.

AN ENVIRONMENT OF LOW SHEAR AND WARM WATERS SHOULD FAVOR
INTENSIFICATION PRIMARILY DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS WHEN
RAYMOND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE. AFTER THAT...ALTHOUGH
THE OCEAN IS WARM...THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE A LITTLE BUT
STILL ALLOWING RAYMOND TO REMAIN A 65-KT HURRICANE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE 
CONSENSUS AND THE SHIPS/LGEM MODEL PAIR. THERE IS NO SCATTEROMETER
DATA NEARBY TO DETERMINE THE WIND RADII...BUT RAYMOND APPEARS TO BE
A SMALL-SIZE CYCLONE AT THIS TIME. 

BASED ON IR AND MICROWAVE FIXES...THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL
MOTION IS 315 DEGREES AT 6 KNOTS.  A LARGE MID-TO UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH IS CURRENTLY AMPLIFYING OVER NORTHERN MEXICO...AND THIS
PATTERN WILL LIKELY CAUSE RAYMON TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND
NORTHWARD FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS. AFTER THAT TIME...STEERING CURRENTS
ARE FORECAST TO COLLAPSE AS THE TROUGH LIFTS OUT...AND RAYMOND WILL
PROBABLY MOVE VERY LITTLE. BEYOND 4 DAYS...MOST OF THE GLOBAL
MODELS REBUILD A STRONG RIDGE OVER MEXICO...AND THE FLOW AROUND THE
RIDGE WILL STEER THE CYCLONE TOWARD THE WEST AND EVEN TOWARD THE
WEST-SOUTHWEST AWAY FROM THE MEXICAN COAST. THE UNCERTAINTY IN THIS
TRACK FORECAST IS HOW CLOSE TO THE COAST OF MEXICO THE CYCLONE WILL
TURN WESTWARD. LATEST DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE WESTWARD
TURN WILL LIKELY OCCUR FARTHER SOUTH THAN IN EARLIER RUNS...AND
BEFORE THE CORE OF THE CYCLONE REACHES THE COAST. NEVERTHELESS...
ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT THERE WILL BE A STRONG TROPICAL STORM OR A
HURRICANE MEANDERING NEAR THE COAST OF SOUTHWEST MEXICO FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND BEYOND.   

HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO
SOUTH-CENTRAL MEXICO DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND THESE RAINS
COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  20/0900Z 14.5N 101.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  20/1800Z 15.1N 101.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  21/0600Z 15.6N 102.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  21/1800Z 16.0N 102.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  22/0600Z 16.2N 102.2W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  23/0600Z 16.5N 102.2W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  24/0600Z 16.5N 102.2W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  25/0600Z 16.5N 104.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 
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