Tropical Depression NARDA
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TROPICAL DEPRESSION NARDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142013
800 AM PDT WED OCT 09 2013
A LIMITED AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION IS ONGOING IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMICIRCLE...ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN NARDA AS A MARGINAL TROPICAL
CYCLONE FOR ANOTHER ADVISORY CYCLE. DVORAK ESTIMATES CONTINUE TO
FALL AND THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS SET TO 25 KT. THE SYSTEM HAS
BECOME EMBEDDED WITHIN THE STABLE STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS OF THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN WHICH...ALONG WITH SOME SHEAR...SHOULD
CONTRIBUTE TO FURTHER WEAKENING. NARDA IS EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE
TO A REMNANT LOW BY THIS EVENING AND DISSIPATE IN 2-3 DAYS.
NARDA IS DRIFTING WESTWARD...AND SHOULD TURN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
LATER TODAY DUE TO LOW-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY TRADES OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC. THE GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS
SCENARIO...AND THE NEW TRACK FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS
ONE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 09/1500Z 16.9N 128.5W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 10/0000Z 16.7N 128.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 10/1200Z 16.3N 129.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 11/0000Z 15.8N 130.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 11/1200Z 15.3N 131.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED
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FORECASTER BLAKE
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