Tropical Storm MANUEL
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TROPICAL STORM MANUEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132013
0900 UTC SUN SEP 15 2013
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MANUEL WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 17.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 102.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
VALID TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED X 14 39 NA NA NA NA
TROP DEPRESSION 3 42 43 NA NA NA NA
TROPICAL STORM 86 36 17 NA NA NA NA
HURRICANE 11 8 1 NA NA NA NA
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 11 7 1 NA NA NA NA
HUR CAT 2 X 1 X NA NA NA NA
HUR CAT 3 X X X NA NA NA NA
HUR CAT 4 X X X NA NA NA NA
HUR CAT 5 X X X NA NA NA NA
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 50KT 30KT 20KT NA NA NA NA
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
SAN BLAS 34 1 7( 8) 3(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11)
P VALLARTA 34 2 19(21) 4(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25)
P VALLARTA 50 X 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
BARRA NAVIDAD 34 24 19(43) 1(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) X(44)
BARRA NAVIDAD 50 1 10(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12)
BARRA NAVIDAD 64 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
MANZANILLO 34 48 16(64) 1(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) X(65)
MANZANILLO 50 4 12(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16)
MANZANILLO 64 X 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
L CARDENAS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
L CARDENAS 50 71 X(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) X(71)
ZIHUATANEJO 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
ISLAS MARIAS 34 X 7( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
$$
FORECASTER BERG
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