Tropical Storm MANUEL

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TROPICAL STORM MANUEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132013
800 AM PDT WED SEP 18 2013
 
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR DATA FROM MEXICO INDICATE THAT THE DEEP
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH MANUEL HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS
MORNING.  THE RADAR IMAGES SHOW THAT A BAND OF SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LOOSELY WRAPS AROUND MUCH OF THE 
CIRCULATION CENTER...WHICH SUGGESTS THAT MANUEL HAS BECOME
A TROPICAL STORM AGAIN.  THE STORM IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN AN
ENVIRONMENT OF LOW SHEAR AND WARM WATERS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...WHICH SHOULD PERMIT SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING.  AFTER 72
HOURS...LAND INTERACTION WILL LIKELY CAUSE MANUEL TO WEAKEN AND THE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 4 DAYS.   

THE RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT MANUEL HAS BEEN MOVING SLOWLY
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD...OR A BIT TO THE RIGHT OF THE EARLIER
FORECASTS.  THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PORTION OF A
MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO DURING 
THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  AFTER THAT TIME...THE MODEL SPREAD BECOMES
QUITE LARGE...WITH THE HWRF LYING ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE...SHOWING
LANDFALL ALONG THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO IN A DAY
OR SO.  MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF MODEL SHOWS MANUEL BECOMING
STATIONARY ON THURSDAY...BEFORE TURNING WEST AND MOVING OVER THE
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.  THESE DIFFERENCES APPEAR AT
LEAST PARTIALLY RELATED TO THE PREDICTED DEPTH OF MANUEL...SINCE A
DEEPER SYSTEM WOULD LIKELY CONTINUE NORTHWARD TOWARD MAINLAND
MEXICO.  THE NHC TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED EASTWARD DURING
THE FIRST 24 TO 48 HOURS TO BE CLOSER TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS.  FOR
NOW...THE NHC FORECAST STILL CALLS FOR A BEND TO THE WEST AS THE
SYSTEM WEAKENS LATER IN THE PERIOD...BUT THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE
FOREAST.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  18/1500Z 23.4N 107.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  19/0000Z 23.8N 108.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  19/1200Z 24.3N 108.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  20/0000Z 24.5N 108.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  20/1200Z 24.5N 109.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  21/1200Z 24.3N 109.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  22/1200Z 24.0N 110.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  23/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
 
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