Tropical Depression MANUEL

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION MANUEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132013
200 AM PDT WED SEP 18 2013

MANUEL CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A SOMEWHAT RAGGED AREA OF DEEP
CONVECTION TO THE EAST OF THE ESTIMATED CENTER POSITION. THE
CONVECTION DOES NOT SHOW A LOT OF CURVATURE...AND DVORAK
CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB SUPPORT KEEPING THE INITIAL
INTENSITY AT 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. AN ENVIRONMENT OF LOW SHEAR
AND WARM SSTS SHOULD SUPPORT GRADUAL STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. BY 72 HOURS THE CYCLONE WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...AND INTERACTION WITH LAND SHOULD RESULT
IN WEAKENING AROUND THAT TIME. MANUEL IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A
REMNANT LOW BY DAY 4 OVER THE MUCH COOLER PACIFIC WATERS WEST OF
THE PENINSULA...AND THE CYCLONE SHOULD DISSIPATE BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS
GUIDANCE THROUGHOUT.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 320/04.
MICROWAVE IMAGERY FROM EARLIER TONIGHT SUGGESTED THAT THE CENTER
WAS LOCATED A LITTLE TO THE EAST AND MOVING A LITTLE SLOWER THAN
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. MANUEL SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY
NORTHWESTWARD TODAY AND TONIGHT...AS THE CYCLONE IS STEERED BY A
RIDGE CENTERED WELL TO THE EAST. A TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES WILL CAUSE THE STEERING FLOW TO WEAKEN BY 36 TO 48
HOURS. AS A RESULT...MANUEL WILL SLOW AND GRADUALLY TURN WESTWARD
BY 72 HOURS AND THEN SOUTHWESTWARD BY 96 HOURS AS A WEAK RIDGE
REBUILDS TO THE NORTHWEST. THE NEW NHC TRACK IS SLOWER AND TO THE
RIGHT DURING THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS...FOLLOWING THE TREND OF THE
GFS...GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN...AND ECMWF. THIS ADJUSTMENT RESULTS IN
MANUEL REMAINING OFFSHORE OF THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA UNTIL AROUND 72 HOURS. LATER IN THE PERIOD THE
AFOREMENTIONED MODELS ALL SHOW A SHARP SOUTHWESTWARD TURN. THE NHC
FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS GENERAL TREND BUT WITH A MORE GRADUAL BEND IN
THE MOTION...AND LIES TO THE RIGHT...OR NORTH...OF THOSE AIDS AT
DAYS 3 AND 4. 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  18/0900Z 23.2N 107.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  18/1800Z 23.6N 108.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  19/0600Z 24.1N 108.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  19/1800Z 24.3N 109.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  20/0600Z 24.5N 109.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  21/0600Z 24.2N 110.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  22/0600Z 23.5N 111.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  23/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
 
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