Tropical Storm LORENA
ZCZC MIAPWSEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM LORENA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122013
0900 UTC FRI SEP 06 2013
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LORENA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 21.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
VALID TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED 1 10 22 25 35 NA NA
TROP DEPRESSION 15 44 48 45 41 NA NA
TROPICAL STORM 84 45 30 28 23 NA NA
HURRICANE X 1 1 2 1 NA NA
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 X 1 1 2 1 NA NA
HUR CAT 2 X X X X X NA NA
HUR CAT 3 X X X X X NA NA
HUR CAT 4 X X X X X NA NA
HUR CAT 5 X X X X X NA NA
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 40KT 35KT 30KT 25KT 20KT NA NA
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
CABO SAN LUCAS 34 5 23(28) 2(30) 1(31) X(31) X(31) X(31)
CABO SAN LUCAS 50 1 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
SAN JOSE CABO 34 6 24(30) 2(32) X(32) 1(33) X(33) X(33)
SAN JOSE CABO 50 X 3( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
LA PAZ 34 X 10(10) 6(16) 1(17) 2(19) X(19) X(19)
LORETO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
GUAYMAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
CULIACAN 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/AVILA
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