Tropical Storm ERICK

ZCZC MIAPWSEP5 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM ERICK WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   8            
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052013               
0900 UTC SAT JUL 06 2013                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERICK WAS LOCATED NEAR        
LATITUDE 17.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 103.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H.                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT  7 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
                                                                    
I.  MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE                
                                                                    
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF 
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES 
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.              
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT.  X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS 
THAN 1 PERCENT.                                                     
                                                                    
                                                                    
      - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -      
                                                                    
VALID TIME   18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU
FORECAST HOUR   12      24      36      48      72      96     120  
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED       X       1       2       3      33      41      50
TROP DEPRESSION  X       4       7      17      43      43      40
TROPICAL STORM  25      44      57      62      24      16      10
HURRICANE       74      51      35      17       1       X       X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1       69      43      28      15       1       X       X
HUR CAT 2        5       6       5       2       X       X       X
HUR CAT 3        1       2       1       1       X       X       X
HUR CAT 4        X       X       X       X       X       X       X
HUR CAT 5        X       X       X       X       X       X       X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND   70KT    70KT    65KT    55KT    30KT    25KT    20KT
                                                                    
                                                                    
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS             
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
CABO SAN LUCAS 34  X   X( X)   5( 5)  16(21)  12(33)   X(33)   1(34)
CABO SAN LUCAS 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   4( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
CABO SAN LUCAS 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
SAN JOSE CABO  34  X   X( X)   5( 5)  15(20)  11(31)   X(31)   X(31)
SAN JOSE CABO  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   4( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
LA PAZ         34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)  10(17)   X(17)   X(17)
 
LORETO         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 
LOS MOCHIS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
CULIACAN       34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   4(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
MAZATLAN       34  X   2( 2)   7( 9)   5(14)   1(15)   X(15)   X(15)
 
SAN BLAS       34  2   5( 7)  17(24)   2(26)   1(27)   X(27)   X(27)
 
P VALLARTA     34  2  29(31)  20(51)   1(52)   X(52)   X(52)   X(52)
P VALLARTA     50  X   2( 2)   5( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
P VALLARTA     64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
BARRA NAVIDAD  34 37  46(83)   2(85)   X(85)   X(85)   X(85)   X(85)
BARRA NAVIDAD  50  2  25(27)   2(29)   X(29)   X(29)   X(29)   X(29)
BARRA NAVIDAD  64  X   8( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
MANZANILLO     34 53  28(81)   1(82)   1(83)   X(83)   X(83)   X(83)
MANZANILLO     50  3  15(18)   1(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)
MANZANILLO     64  1   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
L CARDENAS     34 23   2(25)   1(26)   X(26)   X(26)   X(26)   X(26)
 
ZIHUATANEJO    34  3   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
ISLA SOCORRO   34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   3( 6)   2( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
ISLAS MARIAS   34  1   7( 8)  37(45)   8(53)   X(53)   X(53)   X(53)
ISLAS MARIAS   50  X   X( X)   8( 8)   4(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)
ISLAS MARIAS   64  X   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BEVEN                                                    
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